Live Market Intelligence · Operation Epic Fury
Trump Fuckupometer™
For when "drill baby drill" meets a little excursion/war.
WTI crude oil indexed to Inauguration Day 2025 (baseline ~$76/bbl). Prices refresh every five minutes. Casualty figures sourced from Pentagon statements, Al Jazeera, Britannica, HRANA, and USNI News — all open source.
Since Inauguration Day
+~27%
+$~20 above the $76 baseline
Crisis peak — Mar 9
$119.48
Israel strikes 30 Iranian oil depots
Fuckupometer™ — Real-Time Reading
More than a little fucked up
Not fucked up
More than a little fucked up
Significantly fucked up
Very fucked up
Completely unbelievably fucked up
Current reading: 47.0% of maximum recorded fuckup
"We're going to get the price of energy down… get it down fast… we're going to drill, baby, drill."
— Donald J. Trump, Inauguration Day, January 20, 2025. WTI that day: ~$76. Today: $96.34.
WTI Crude — 30-Day Price
WTI priceInaug. baseline ($76)
30 days agoToday
Butcher's Bill — Op. Epic Fury
Commenced Feb 28, 2026. Status: ongoing.
US KIA
7
Pentagon confirmed, incl. 1 non-combat death in Kuwait
Pentagon / Al Jazeera, Mar 10
US WIA
~140
108 returned to duty; 8 remain severe
Pentagon, Mar 10
Iranian dead
1,250+
Confirmed minimum. HRANA estimates up to 7,000. Trump administration claims 32,000.
Al Jazeera / Britannica, Mar 12
Civilians
742+
Human Rights Activists in Iran estimate; Red Crescent: 600+
HRANA / IRC, Mar 3
Minab school
148–180
Girls school, Minab, near Bandar Abbas. US disputes intentionality.
Iranian govt / Britannica (disputed)
Gulf civilians
Dozens
UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain — Iranian retaliatory strikes
Reuters / official statements
Iranian casualty figures remain heavily disputed between US government statements, Iranian state media, and independent monitors.
War Economy Dashboard
What else moves when a Strait closes and a president promises cheap energy.
Loading commodity data…
Fertilizer tracked via CF Industries (NYSE: CF) — largest US urea producer. Urea is an OTC market with no liquid exchange-traded futures. All inauguration baselines estimated from January 20, 2025 market close.
Incident Log
Jun 13Israel launches multipronged strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, military sites, and senior commanders. Brent spikes 8.8% intraday to ~$75.5. Iran retaliates with missile attacks on Israel. Jun 22US B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles strike Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities — "Operation Midnight Hammer." First direct US attack on Iranian territory since 1988. WTI briefly touches low $80s, then retraces. Jun 23Ceasefire announced. Oil closes down. Markets read it as contained. Iran parliament voted to close the Strait — Supreme National Security Council declines. For now. OctCeasefire holds. WTI settles back into the $60s. OPEC+ floods the market. "Drill baby drill" is working great in a world where supply exceeds demand. Nov–DecWTI crashes to ~$55 — lowest in four years. Shale patch surrenders. Dallas Fed: producers need $65 to profitably drill. Rigs stop. Nobody talks about this later. Dec 28Protests erupt across Iran. BNEF notes rising call skew in WTI options — traders quietly pricing upside risk. Oil climbs above $66. No war premium yet. Just a whisper. Jan 12Trump announces 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, "effective immediately." Brent options skews spike nearly 19 points. The ceasefire is still technically in place. Jan 20Inauguration. "We're going to get the price of energy down — drill, baby, drill." WTI: ~$76. Simultaneously, the US begins amassing the largest air power armada in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. Feb 10US–Iran nuclear talks in Oman. Markets briefly believe it. WTI dips to $63. The military buildup in the Gulf continues regardless. Feb 27EIA reports US crude inventories rose 3.5M barrels the prior week. WTI closes at ~$67. A White House source later says Trump's "energy team had a strong game plan to keep markets stable well before Operation Epic Fury began." Feb 28Operation Epic Fury begins. ~900 US–Israeli strikes in the first 12 hours. Khamenei killed. IRGC announces the Strait of Hormuz is closed and will set any ship that tries to pass on fire. Mar 1First 3 US KIA confirmed. Iran launches massive retaliatory barrage across the Gulf. OPEC+ raises production quota 220k bpd — 60% above the expected adjustment — to "mute upside pressure." It does not. Mar 2US embassy Kuwait struck. Girls school in Minab hit — 148–180 dead (disputed). QatarEnergy ceases LNG production from its 77 mtpa Ras Laffan facility. 6 more US KIA in Kuwait. Mar 3Goldman Sachs estimates a $14/bbl war premium now embedded in prices. Iraq's southern oilfields collapse 70% to 1.3M bpd. Kuwait and UAE announce precautionary production cuts. Mar 9Israel bombs 30 Iranian oil depots. WTI spikes to $119.48 — a 3.75-year high. Mojtaba Khamenei appointed new Supreme Leader: markets read it as Tehran digging in. Trump: "It will be over soon." Mar 10Trump says he is "thinking about taking over" the Strait of Hormuz. Floats lifting Russia oil sanctions to ease prices. Iran FM calls it "Operation Epic Mistake" and posts that commodities are "skyrocketing." Saudi Arabia quietly shuts Safaniya and Zuluf offshore fields. Mar 11IEA releases 400M barrels — largest emergency reserve release in history. G7 finance ministers convene on coordinated response. Three more vessels struck in the Strait regardless. Mar 12Today. Live price above. Twelve days in. The war is apparently not over. Why This Matters
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global oil flow. Its effective closure — triggered by the US–Iran conflict that began February 28 — has produced a supply shock that US domestic production cannot remedy on any relevant timeline. The shale patch surrendered drilling capacity when oil sat at $55 in late 2025. Those rigs do not return in weeks.
The IEA's 400-million-barrel emergency release — the largest in history — stabilized prices briefly before fresh Hormuz attacks pushed them back up. The EIA now forecasts Brent above $95 through Q2 2026. Fertilizer prices matter because urea is a natural gas derivative: energy shocks travel directly into food production costs with a one-to-two season lag.
Want the actual analysis?
Read The Long Memo — institutional analysis for people who need to know what's actually happening.
Read The Long Memo →Data: WTI (CL=F), Natural Gas (NG=F), Gasoline (RB=F), Wheat (ZW=F), Corn (ZC=F), CF Industries (CF) via Yahoo Finance. Refreshes every five minutes. Not financial advice. This is a gag. A very accurate gag. · The Long Memo · Heckuva job, Trumpy!
FOR SATIRICAL PURPOSES ONLY // NOT AFFILIATED WITH THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
