Trump Fuckupometer™
A little excursion.
WTI crude oil indexed to Inauguration Day 2025 (baseline ~$76/bbl). Last trade: loading…. Casualty figures sourced from Pentagon statements, Al Jazeera, Britannica, HRANA, and USNI News — all open source.
Day 60 of Operation Epic Fury · Commenced Feb 28, 2026
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Subscribe Free →Fuckupometer™ — Dual Reading
Two instruments measuring different things. When they diverge — when markets price less fuckedness than the structural picture warrants — that gap is the signal. It is also usually temporary.
Divergence Signal — Market under-pricing structural risk by 30.0 points
The gap between market pricing and structural reality is the number to watch. Markets reprice when they can no longer ignore what analysts have been measuring. The Strait is still closed. The mine-clearance ships are still in Malaysia.
"We're going to get the price of energy down… get it down fast… we're going to drill, baby, drill."
— Donald J. Trump, Inauguration Day, January 20, 2025. WTI that day: ~$76. Today: $96.34.
War Trajectory — State vs. Reversibility
Each dot is a day. X axis: geopolitical fuckedness — structural floor plus event scoring. Y axis: ease of unfuckability — TLM Assessment, updated daily with evidence. The trail is the argument. Hover each point for the full rationale on both axes.
Structural Floor: 59/100 — conditions holding score above "Very Fucked Up"
Reversal: Confirmed Western-flagged commercial transit without Iranian escort or yuan settlement
Reversal: 72-hour cessation of strikes confirmed by both CENTCOM and IRGC
Reversal: USS Tulsa or USS Santa Barbara confirmed operating in the Persian Gulf
Reversal: FM-level statement accepting ceasefire talks — not Trump claiming they want a deal
Reversal: Two or more named nations confirm warships en route for escort operations
Reversal: Arrangement formally dissolved or Western vessels granted equivalent access
Reversal: IRGC confirms or deploys — score rises on deployment, floor condition removed
Reversal: Confirmed replacement, no further senior public resignations
Reversal: Formal US acknowledgment + confirmed repair of bilateral relationship with Saudi Arabia and Qatar
X axis (Fuckedness): structural floor conditions (all-active floor = 55) + event push above floor, decaying 0.5pts/quiet day. Y axis (Ease of Unfuckability): TLM Assessment — updated daily with evidence. 10 = adults in the room fix it tomorrow. 1 = chiseled in rock. Score ceiling: $150+ sustained oil or nuclear weapons use = 96–100. Hover each point for full rationale.
Trump Said vs. Reality
A running log. The gap between the statement and the situation tends to widen over time.
Showing most recent 3 of 46 entries.
He said
"We have total control over the Strait of Hormuz. No ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy. It is 'Sealed up Tight.'"
Reality
IRGC seized two foreign container ships (MSC Francesca, Epaminondas) and fired on a third in the Strait of Hormuz on Apr 22 without US interference. Iran also collected its first Hormuz toll revenue on Apr 23. The strait remains under Iranian operational control. Day 55.
He said
"Not gonna be traveling 15, 16 hours to have a meeting with people nobody has ever heard of."
Reality
Abbas Araghchi is Iran's Foreign Minister — a career diplomat who has represented Iran in nuclear negotiations since 2013 and served as Deputy FM for a decade. He is among the most recognizable Iranian officials in international diplomacy. Trump canceled the Witkoff/Kushner trip the same day Araghchi was physically in Islamabad waiting for it. Day 57.
He said
"The United States holds the cards and will only make a deal that puts the American people first, never allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon."
Reality
The Iranian proposal on the table explicitly defers nuclear talks to Phase 2. Rubio confirmed the proposal is "better than expected" and declined to say Trump would reject it. Sources familiar with the mediation told CNN the sides are discussing a staged process — Hormuz first, nuclear later — that would require the US to accept the exact sequencing Trump publicly claims to reject. The White House simultaneously refused to discuss specifics, saying it would "not negotiate through the press." Day 60.
WTI Crude — 30-Day Price
Analyst scenarios
Brent Crude — 30-Day Price
Brent (BZ=F) — global benchmark, typically $3–5 above WTI
Butcher's Bill — Op. Epic Fury
Commenced Feb 28, 2026. Status: ongoing.
6 killed Kuwait (Mar 1), 1 non-combat (Mar 9), 6 killed KC-135 crash Iraq (Mar 13), 1 enemy attack Prince Sultan AB Saudi Arabia (Mar 1), 1 non-combat Kuwait (Apr 1). The Intercept (Apr 1): Pentagon sending outdated figures — a defense official called it a "casualty cover-up."
Wikipedia / The Intercept, Apr 1
CENTCOM confirmed 303 as of Mar 28 — already an undercount per The Intercept, which excluded at least 15 wounded in a Mar 28 Prince Sultan attack. Majority: traumatic brain injuries from Iranian ballistic missile/drone barrages. Pentagon has refused to provide updated figures.
CENTCOM Mar 28 / The Intercept Apr 1
HRANA (Apr 7): 3,636 documented — 1,701 civilians, 1,221 military, 714 unclassified. Iran Health Ministry (Apr 2): 2,076+ (acknowledged undercount). Iran International: 4,700+ security forces killed (Mar 31). Trump administration claims 32,000. HRANA notes military casualties believed significantly higher.
HRANA Apr 7 / Iran Health Ministry Apr 2
Iran Health Ministry as of early April. Includes at least 4,000 women and 1,621 children.
Iran Health Ministry, Apr 2
Killed by Israeli strikes since Mar 2 (as of Apr 20). Includes Apr 8 mass strike: 254 killed in single day. Over 1 million displaced (1/6 of population). 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire began Apr 17; Israel accused of multiple violations same day. IDF claims 1,400+ Hezbollah fighters killed.
Casualties Wikipedia / Lebanon Health Ministry, Apr 20
Since Israel renewed widespread attacks Mar 2. As of Apr 20. 10-day ceasefire began Apr 17 but violations reported immediately.
Casualties Wikipedia / Lebanon Health Ministry, Apr 20
As of Apr 7: 40 Israeli citizens killed including 27 civilians; 7,453 injured (418 military). Killed by Iranian missile/drone strikes Feb 28 onward. 15 IDF soldiers killed in southern Lebanon ground operations since Mar 2.
Casualties Wikipedia, Apr 7
Girls school, Minab, Feb 28. Amnesty International (Mar 17) confirms US responsibility. Iranian state media: more than 175 killed, mostly schoolgirls; 95 wounded. US has not acknowledged civilian casualties.
Amnesty International, Mar 17; Wikipedia
IRGC attacks on merchant vessels since Feb 28 (excludes 2 US seizures/boardings). Apr 18 cluster: Sanmar Herald (VLCC fired on by 2 gunboats), CMA CGM Everglade (struck by projectile), Jag Arnav (near-miss). US blockade has turned back 28 ships. 870 vessels stranded inside Gulf; ~200 ships and 20,000 seafarers unable to transit.
Al Jazeera Apr 14 (22 confirmed) / Windward Maritime AI Apr 19-20 / UKMTO
UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain — Iranian retaliatory strikes on energy and government infrastructure. Kuwait: power plants, desalination, KPC facilities (Apr 4). Iraqi dead: 109+ (Health Ministry).
Reuters / official statements / Al Jazeera
Iranian casualty figures remain heavily disputed between US government statements, Iranian state media, and independent monitors.
War Economy Dashboard
What else moves when a Strait closes and a president promises cheap energy.
Fertilizer tracked via CF Industries (NYSE: CF) — largest US urea producer. Urea is an OTC market with no liquid exchange-traded futures. All inauguration baselines estimated from January 20, 2025 market close.
What This Is Costing the Average American
The Pentagon confirmed $11.3 billion spent in the first six days. Penn Wharton projects $40–95 billion for a two-month campaign. Here is what that means per household — and what those dollars could have done instead.
Household share calculated by dividing unbudgeted war cost by 132 million US households (Census 2024). Penn Wharton Budget Model range: $40B–$95B direct; $50B–$210B total economic impact. Senator Coons has noted the Pentagon figure is likely an undercount.
What $58.28B Would Have Bought
At the current estimated war cost — Day 60, running total — here is what the same dollars could alternatively fund. Not an argument about whether the war was justified. Just arithmetic.
All comparisons use the current estimated war cost to date (Day 60). Sources listed per card. These are illustrative dollar-for-dollar comparisons — not policy proposals. The Long Memo does not take positions on whether the war should be fought. We do math.
What This Is Costing You
Enter your vehicle specs. We'll tell you what the "excursion" in Iran is actually costing you at the pump vs. inauguration day.
Pump price sourced from AAA national average when available; falls back to RBOB futures + $1.00 markup. Inauguration baseline: $3.13/gal (EIA national avg, Jan 20, 2025). Average US driver: ~1,000 miles/month, ~28 MPG. National average: $4.03/gal as of Apr 23 (AAA) — up 29% since Feb 28 baseline of $3.13. EIA week of Apr 20: $4.178/gal. California: $5.89/gal. 5 states above or near $5/gal. Gas ticked back up after mid-April dip as Brent climbed above $110.
Beyond the Pump — What Else This Is Costing You
Oil is embedded in the price of nearly everything. These estimates apply Fed research pass-through rates to the current ~25% WTI increase from the inauguration baseline. Effects on food and core goods build slowly — the full impact typically runs 2–4 quarters behind the oil shock itself.
Estimates derived from Federal Reserve Board (FEDS Notes, Dec 2023) oil pass-through research: 10% oil increase → food CPI +0.3%, core CPI +0.1%. Applied to WTI increase of ~25% since Jan 20, 2025. Household dollar estimates use BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey averages. Airfare estimate from JPMorgan Private Bank via CNBC, Mar 11, 2026. These are estimates, not precise forecasts.
Incident Log
Showing most recent 5 of 178 entries. 2025 pre-war events collapsed.
Why This Matters
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global oil flow. Its effective closure — triggered by the US–Iran conflict that began February 28 — has produced a supply shock that US domestic production cannot remedy on any relevant timeline. The shale patch surrendered drilling capacity when oil sat at $55 in late 2025. Those rigs do not return in weeks.
The IEA's 400-million-barrel emergency release — the largest in history — stabilized prices briefly before fresh Hormuz attacks pushed them back up. The EIA now forecasts Brent above $95 through Q2 2026. Fertilizer prices matter because urea is a natural gas derivative: energy shocks travel directly into food production costs with a one-to-two season lag.
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Go Deeper →Data: WTI (CL=F), Brent (BZ=F), Natural Gas (NG=F), Gasoline (RB=F), Wheat (ZW=F), Corn (ZC=F), CF Industries (CF) via Yahoo Finance. Refreshes every 3 min when market is open; shows last settlement price when closed (futures trade Sun 6 PM – Fri 5 PM ET). Not financial advice. This is a gag. A very accurate gag. · The Long Memo · Heckuva job, Trumpy!
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